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The Drunkard's Walk: How Randomness Rules Our Lives
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List Price:
$24.95
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$16.47
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Manufacturer: Pantheon
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Average Customer Rating:  
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Binding: Hardcover
Dewey Decimal Number: 519.2
EAN: 9780375424045
ISBN: 0375424040
Label: Pantheon
Manufacturer: Pantheon
Number Of Items: 1
Number Of Pages: 272
Publication Date: 2008-05-13
Publisher: Pantheon
Release Date: 2008-05-13
Studio: Pantheon
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Editorial Reviews:
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In this irreverent and illuminating book, acclaimed writer and scientist Leonard Mlodinow shows us how randomness, change, and probability reveal a tremendous amount about our daily lives, and how we misunderstand the significance of everything from a casual conversation to a major financial setback. As a result, successes and failures in life are often attributed to clear and obvious cases, when in actuality they are more profoundly influenced by chance.
The rise and fall of your favorite movie star of the most reviled CEO--in fact, of all our destinies--reflects as much as planning and innate abilities. Even the legendary Roger Maris, who beat Babe Ruth's single-season home run record, was in all likelihood not great but just lucky. And it might be shocking to realize that you are twice as likely to be killed in a car accident on your way to buying a lottery ticket than you are to win the lottery.
How could it have happened that a wine was given five out of five stars, the highest rating, in one journal and in another it was called the worst wine of the decade? Mlodinow vividly demonstrates how wine ratings, school grades, political polls, and many other things in daily life are less reliable than we believe. By showing us the true nature of change and revealing the psychological illusions that cause us to misjudge the world around us, Mlodinow gives fresh insight into what is really meaningful and how we can make decisions based on a deeper truth. From the classroom to the courtroom, from financial markets to supermarkets, from the doctor's office to the Oval Office, Mlodinow's insights will intrigue, awe, and inspire.
Offering readers not only a tour of randomness, chance, and probability but also a new way of looking at the world, this original, unexpected journey reminds us that much in our lives is about as predictable as the steps of a stumbling man fresh from a night at the bar.
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Spotlight customer reviews:
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Customer Rating: 
Summary: Interesting, but an inconsistency
Comment: I'm sure most of the arguments made in the book are sound, but I must point out a paragraph in which he failed to remain consistent about his own argument. In chapter two, Mlodinow argues that many people would choose (A and B) to be more probable than (B), and that this is mathematically and logically impossible. However, on a paragraph on page 25 he then proceeds to argue how highly trained doctors make this mistake, and provides two choices given to them. Unfortunately, the choices offered were (A and B) vs (only B), not the previous (A and B) vs (B). His use of the word "only" equates to (B and ~A). (B and ~A) is certainly not always more probable than (A and B). For instance, if A is .90, and B is .11, then (A and B) = .90 * .11 = .099. (B and ~A) = .11 * (1-.90) = .011. .099 > .011, showing that in this case, (A and B) is more probable than (only B).
Customer Rating:
Summary: a bit technical
Comment: This book is really interesting but is a bit more technical than I had anticipated. An Understanding of math is helpful.
Customer Rating:
Summary: Skip if you took Stats in college
Comment: Some interesting anecdotes, nice historical notes and intriguing opening and closing chapters, but not worth the cost or the read if you've already studied statistics in at school.
Customer Rating:
Summary: THIS IS AN OUTSTANDING BOOK
Comment: I own the audio version of this book and although I'm not much of a math guy I enjoyed it so much I had to buy the hard cover book to give to my father in law. He is an avid reader and loves math so I expect he will get a kick out of this. Read it or listen to it. This book will make you think. A very nice piece of work!
Customer Rating:
Summary: An excellent read
Comment: Mlodinow puts concepts of mathematical randomness in terms that anyone can understand, and makes a lot of interesting points. One of my favorites is that in string of 100 million truly random coin tosses, there will be at least 10 non-overlapping runs of all heads or all tails. What this tells us is that if one considers the jillions of events that happen to each of us in a lifetime, at some point there will be a string of events that all seem to "go your way" or the opposite. But this is the result of pure randomness - not "good luck" or prayer or whatever.
Another interesting concept is that of coaches or teachers who admonish their charges when they do poorly and reward them when they do well, citing the improved results of the former action and concerning themselves with the reduction of prowess in the latter. Mlodinow points out that a team or a pilot or whatever will have an average performance, but will naturally have games or tests that will result in above- or below- average results. If a given result is above average, then odds are the next time it will fall back to the norm. If the result is below average (a player's bad performance, a lost game) then odds are the next time he will do better - whether or not the coach yells.
In all, some fascinating stuff in this book about everyday life situations and how our all-too-human minds do not have the makeup to recognize the inherent randomness of it all.
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